Helen Jackson

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• CV
• Working with clients
  • My approach
  • Indicative services
• Example analyses
  • England and Wales property prices
  • UK economy as a network Bottlenecks in EU LNG supply
  • Millennium Development Goals
  • Schelling model
  • Weather and agricultural yields
  • Dynamic fisheries model
  • Visualising sensitivity analysis
• Contact

Example analysis

Is an unregulated fishery inevitably doomed? (after Bjorndal and Conrad). The chart plots fish stocks against harvesting effort for an open access fishery where boats have unregulated access to a stock. The initial blue spiral demonstrates the theoretical finding that open access regimes may not always lead to stock collapse, due to industry exit when catches are low. However, it is likely that such outcomes are highly sensitive to prevailing conditions. The jagged blue line shows the application of the model to North Sea herring prior to the Common Fisheries Policy, where open access lead to a collapse of the stock over a period of just 14 years. The green loop shows a stable situation that might have been reached had harvest been reduced by 22% in each year. More.

Does urban segregation prove that people are intolerant? The Schelling model of urban segregation shows that even mild individual preferences for neighbours similar to oneself can cause social segregation within a city. The grid is a city and the two colours represent households of different groups. Pale squares are empty houses. Households move if fewer than half of their eight neighbour households are of the same group as themselves. Even with a marked tolerance for others, distinct segregated neighbourhoods emerge. More.

How does weather impact on crop yields? The thick grey line shows UK yields of the selected crop over the period 1985-2012. The coloured lines show how yield would have improved had the weather variable described been optimal that agricultural year, all else being equal, as estimated by regression analysis. Finally, yields estimated by the same regression analysis are shown. More.
WheatOatsPotatoes

Does economic growth help a country meet the Millennium Development Goals? The Millennium Development Goals were established by the UN in 2000 to focus and stimulate development efforts, setting a series of Targets to be met by 2015. The dots show countries' performance since 1990 against both GDP and a selected indicator. Choose a region and indicator using the droplists, and hover over dots for country labels. While the charts can show association between development progress and economic growth, they cannot by themselves be used to determine a causal relationship. More.

How can we use computing power to do better sensitivity analysis? In policy analysis, there is often a need to understand how quantitative estimates change under a range of different scenarios, and figures are often beset by large uncertainties. The chart presents the results of an original sensitivity analysis using existing data on the cost of renewable technologies in the UK. 100,000 different estimates of the costs of each technology were computed, by exploring cost estimate ranges and varying the discount rate, and the technologies ranked by cost. The chart shows how frequently each technology is placed under each rank, with 1 indicating the lowest cost and 12 indicating the highest. Some technologies, such as solar PV, are placed in a particular rank under almost all scenarios, while others, such as onshore wind, show a wider spread. More.

Get in touch

Please feel free to contact me to discuss your requirements.

I am based near Cambridge, UK.

contact@helenjacksonanalytic.co.uk

twitter: HelenJackson0

+44 (0)1799 668323